I talked to the regional and area fisheries biologist along with one of the Columbia River fisheries managers to get an accurate update on the sockeye returning to the Upper Columbia River. Here are some interesting facts:
1. The preseason forecast for the Upper Columbia River sockeye, including the Snake River fish was for 125,200 fish. Although it can fluctuate greatly, the biologists usually use an estimate of 5-15% of fish returning to Lake Wenatchee. The balance are 500-1000 fish for the Snake River and around 85-95% for the Okanagon run.
2. On June 29th they had the largest one day sockeye count 26,873 at Bonneville dam since 1947 when they started keeping records. The next day count was 25,128. The 2008 sockeye run of 214,465 was the biggest since 1980. The largest run recorded was 318,900 in 1952.
3. On July 1, 2010 sockeye retention was authorized for above Priest Rapids Dam (With some zone exceptions so be sure to look at the regulations for the main stem Columbia in this area). The daily limit in this area is 6 salmon. Up to 3 adult chinook of which only 1 can be a wild adult fish. Sockeye minimum size is 12 inches.
4. Last week the run was again updated to 375,000, which would be the largest run ever recorded.
5. As for the Lake Wenatchee segment of the run, the determination to open will only occur when the biologists are assured that they will have the 23,000 escapement that is required. Sockeye in excess of escapement are available for harvest. Given that last year’s escapement was not met on account of a warm water blockage in the Wenatchee River that returning fish refused to enter, I am certain that the biologist will be much more cautious about opening a fishery on Lake Wenatchee. Although, there remains a very good chance of a fishery, we just need to be patient. There are a lot of fish (chinook and a few sockeye) holding in the deeper holes around Leavenworth, waiting for the river to recede so they can start the passage up Tumwater canyon. I will update the Tumwater count when there are noteworthy fish showing.
Rollie Schmitten
WDFWL Commissioner
Lake Wenatchee Salmon Update
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{ 28 comments… read them below or add one }
Rollie:
It would be nice to get an explanation of the counting methodology at Tumwater. They seem to be 9-10 days late in reporting their data, versus Rocky Reach and Rock Island which report data to DART in 24 hours. It seems like every year the number of fish which don’t make it from Rock Island to Rocky Reach is considerably more than the number credited with passing Tumwater dam. Of course there will be fewer due to fish taken off Wenatchee and mortality. But the discrepancy is noticeable and the more information we have about how and when they are counted would help.
Thanks Dave. Even if they dont have a season theres going to be a huge number of fish int he main river heading for the Okanagon. This should make for some pretty good fishing at the Okanagon/Columbia confluence. Prabably better than what we can expect for Wenatchee.
Lets hope at least 7.5% turn into the Wenatchee so we can have a season there too.
Any numbers over Tumwater?
None yet but
1. the site is about a week or more late in updating
2. Sockeye dont typically start to pass the dam until mid July.
So probably not many if any there yet. Not that we would know with the last update back on June 27th
Just for Fun
As of July 6, 2010:
Returning PIT tagged adults from the 14,764 tagged juvenile fish in 2007 counted 576 over Bonneville Dam.
An extremely great return rate of 3.9% (normally 0.4-2.0%).
Rock Island shows 197 returning tagged adults, a good rate for this date, while Rocky Reach shows 58 and Wells shows 11!? That is a stray rate of 29.4%!!! The concerning thing about the straying is that some of the fish are heading toward the Entiat River and Okanogan and not toward Lake Wenatchee.
Just saw brood year 2006, hatchery origin release from Lake Wenatchee was 225,670 (program is for 250-650k(?)). With a return rate of 3.9% accounting for a hatchery origin available fish potential of 8,801; of which 2,587 are headed up the wrong river (strays).
So thinking further of this if we need 23k to cross Tumwater, we will need there to have been a wild juvenile out-migration of 430, 410 with no straying or 609,646 with the same stray rate. Anyone know the wild population estimate for the 2007 out-migration?
In 2006 there were 9,657 sockeye over Tumwater. Subtracting the 260 fish collected for broodstock that year and dividing the remainder by 2 (males/females) gives 4698 females available for natural spawning. An average fecundity for sockeye is ~3000+ eggs. Making for a potential of 14mil wild laid eggs (real rosy number). Cedar River estimates of egg to fry survival is 7.6%. Applying this rate is a potential of 1,064,000 fry available in 2007 to rear in Lake Wenatchee or other Columbia River-Lakes and return this year. So if all of them survived to migrate and came back at the same 3.9% return rate, that could be a potential of 41,496 or 29,296 (less stray rate, 29.4%). If you think that the wild origin fish would be less likely to stray and split the difference (35396), then add the 6,214 hatchery heading this way…
My “rosy” guesstimate over Tumwater Dam is 41,610
What’s yours?
WOW and I thought I was obsessed with this. LOL The problem is the same formulas were used to predict the original 125,000 or so sockeye return for 2010. Another problem is they use different sized pit tags. Some are picked up at one dam and not at another which can indicate straying. Your numbers would be plausible if normal returns were occurring. But, its apparent that the juvi- adult survival rate was far higher than normal resulting in a run over 2x the predicted number, but pit tags returns indicate most heading upriver so Im going to say 31-34,000 into the lake.
The straying is a bummer but just remember that the Oki run has strays also and there are a couple hundred thousand of them. We may end up getting 2-3 okin strays for every one of the Wenatchee fish they get.
OK so if you look at the Tumwater sockeye return as a ratio of the Bonneville return you get a 10 year average of 22.5%. 22.5% of the total Bonneville return turn left an cross the Tumwater.
The Trend is down though… see graph.*opps… I cant figure out how to add an excel graph? oh well trust me the trend down…, if you extend the trend one year to 2010 it goes down to ~10% (expon-R2 44)
So if you take the last three years average of 11% turning left… and agree that the new prediction of 375,000 will be very close… you get 41,250. While if you use the 22.5%, 10 year average, you get 84,375!!!
All I know is that I have figured it three ways and have come up with; 41154, 41610, and 41250.
So I’ll stick with the optimistic estimate of 41,610
Dont get me wrong. More is better!
Still no sockeye over Tumwater. The average is about a 100 by this date.
We had a garage sale this weekend and I had a little time on my hands
…
A little more detail PIT tag results: as of 7/11/2010
Lake Wenatchee Wild tagged fish are coming back at a rate of 6.88% and straying at a rate of 18.1%. Hatchery fish are coming back at a rate of 4% (4 year olds) with a stray rate of 29.8% and a 0.05% return rate for 5-year-old fish.
4 year olds:
225000 Hatchery release 2006 brood*0.04(hor return)=9000*0.702(-hor strays)= 6318
Some literature suggests that a viable redd is 0.25 of each returning adult; 2006 – 9657- 260 (hach brood) 9397*0.25 = 2349*3000(fecundity)= 7047750*.076(egg-fry)=535629*.0688(return rate wild)=36851*0.819(-wild stray)=30181
5 year olds:
140542 Hatchery release 2005 brood*.000548(5 yr old return rate)= 77
14000*.25 = 3500*3000=10500000(eggs)*0.076=798000(wild fry)*0.000548=437 (wild 5 yr)
437+77= 514*0.819(-strays)= 421
New PIT tag estimate= 36,920
But add a slight rate of loss due to the tags; say that the pit tagged fish only survive 96% as well as their non-tagged counterparts… (4 year old calculation only) 14765 hatchery of 225000, and 3165 wild of 535629.
-593 out of 14765, and 8759 with the added survivability = 9352*0.702(-strays) = 6565
-116 out of 3165 (wild tagged) with the added surv = 37920*0.819(-strays) = 31057
Again add the 5 year olds = 421
You get- 38,043
To get any more than this we’d need strays from Okanogan or any of the brood or survival rates to better than above. A 2.5% stray rate would give us an extra 7500!? This also does not consider harvest or loss rates from migration hazards (temp, flows, predation, etc…) 31-34 looks better all the time I’ll take it! We’ll have to check the Rock Island/Rocky Reach gap when it is updated; last Friday it was 38k.
Just had another thought; those folks working at the Tumwater are going to be very busy, do we know if they are planning any extra help?
Well not to try and put a damper on anyone’s happy thoughts, but a couple things that know one is talking about on here is the fact that yes, as of today 377k have crossed Bon. BUT only 256k have crossed McNary……..and the numbers are slowing rapidly! Guess the Indians are really netting the hell out of them again!! So, the sad truth is…..you cant use the Bon numbers to make your guesses…..you need to use either McNary or Priest Rapids…..at least those fish have made it past the gauntlet of Indian nets!
Also, guess you all put more faith in the counters at Tumwater than I do…..I post last year about the book reading counter that was letting fish go by without clicking them in……when questioned about it….his response was….”Well, I wait til I have a bunch of them, then I click the counter a bunch of times.” Funny thing was, I didn’t see him ever look up from his book for at least 15 minutes! I counted 67 sockeye go by in that time frame, he told me that there had only been about 30! So ya, I have no faith in the counters…..maybe sportsmen should be running the show at Tumwater….or maybe even get some Trout Unlimited volunteers to keep a watch on it!!
Sure the indians are netting fish, they rate some, but they are not getting that many many a couple % of the run. They are probably netting less than are dying in river. They sockeye are just moving through too fast for them to get that many. Most of the fish are in the mid/upper river and are beyound the majority of the nets. There are not many fish missing in the total, theres only about 75,000 difference between Bon and Priest Rapids. Thats not much considering the river miles between the two. The way it looks now about 90% 0f the run will past Priest Rapid dam. The big question is how many are going to hook into the Wenatchee. It would be nice if they would update the Tumwater count to see if there are sockeyes moving through, which they should be based on historical passage. Having worked a fish ladder in the distant past. I will tell you this. At first its fun but it rapidly gets boring and then gets mind numbing. However thats No excuse for not doing your job. Your supposed to count every fish to the best of your ability.
As far as the straying…Depending on which dam they were counted going over, dont lose hope. This species has a tendincy to go up a ladder and then come back down. However I wouldnt expect THAT many to drop back over rocky reach once over it. Even with the stray rate there should be enough extra into the lake for a season. I dont expect WA to anounce one though until 24-27000 pass Tumwater. They got burned last year and Ill bet wont make the same mistake again.
This was posted today in the Everett Herald.
“Counting has started on sockeye passing the Tumwater Dam on the Wenatchee River, according to state biologist Jeff Korth in Ephrata, but only a couple of hundred fish had been tallied as of Wednesday. The Tumwater count is a necessary precursor to the possibility of a recreational sockeye season on Lake Wenatchee.
“We should know by the end of the month whether or not we have enough fish in excess of escapement needs to open a season,” Korth said.
Since the dam counts are very high and undoubtedly wearing out the employees, I’ll volunteer some more self-calculated data to help ease everyone’s tensions toward our various fish and wildlife employees and tribes. Just to mention… I think they both are doing a good job of trying to manage a very difficult and often political plate of spaghetti that is our “fisheries”. Here is a raised Beer to the efforts!
Anyway… here is my (***) Tumwater count using the PIT tag data, as before (just updated to today’s date) and applied to Tumwater Dam tag data (which must be automatically or extra enthusiastically uploaded):
For each day there are wild and hatchery tagged fish coming over Tumwater. I am calculating a daily percentage of the return based on the total PIT tag return. Then I take and apply that percentage to the total estimated return (wild & hatchery each) minus stray rate. Using a 2008 sockeye return study, where it showed that visual estimates at Tumwater Dam were over counting the mark/recapture (PIT tag) estimates by 29.1%, I added the 29% to the second total to show what the range of the count should be. This over count could be representative of strays from the upper river, or just human factors.
Excuse my poor table; season totals are first numerical column then daily counts, first numerical row is season and daily totals using PIT tag method and second row is adding 29% for visual estimate. We should get an update soon to see how the numbers are and compare.
Daily Counts
Season Total 10 –14 Oct 15-Jul 16-Jul 17-Jul 18-Jul
Total PIT est. 7423 40* 903 1449 1835 3195
+29% Visible 9575 52** 1165 1870 2367 4122
* = 10th through the 14th (**only 2 hatchery tags used calculated 10 fish a day, probably 5 times more (200) wild that are unaccounted for using PIT tags, but my way missed them?)
*** These are my own calculations and figures from data provided through the Columbia River DART web site, not to be confused with data released from official representatives, and just for fun. But still as a concerned citizen and avid sportsman eager to ensure open and honest sporting opportunities.
Also a good sign for us is the fact that the flows are about double now verses last year and the Wenatchee River daily mean temperature is 2 degrees less than this time last year. Last year the daily mean went over 22 degrees July 31 – August 3rd representing a thermal barrier to adult migration and probably the reason we were short about 11,000 fish from official estimates and also the PIT tag method I’m using.
See ya on the lake in a few weeks!!! ?
?
Wow that table turned out worse than expected! If some one knows how to add in excel tables and graphs, please share
10 – 14th July was 40 (pit) and 52 (visual)
15th, 903 and 1165
16th, 1449 and 1870
17th, 1835 and 2367
18th , 3195 and 4122
for a total as of the 18th of 7423 (PIT) and 9575 (Visual)
oh yea, and i’m estimating that this is only about 21% of the run so far.
It will be nice when the DO update the Tumwater counts. The sock differce between RI and RR dams has been holding steady at between 35000-50,000 for a couple weeks. Granted a % of that is fish moving up the system but lets hope that they are turning into the Wenatchee.
A run of between 37000 and 48000 looks good to me. Heck even if your calculations turn out to be off by 10% we will still be fishing for sockeye.
Have any of you ever fished the Brewster Pool on the Columbia river? They are doing really good on Sockeye there right now. Lots of 6 fish limits. Been thinking of taking a nice 8 hr truck ride with my boat to try it.
As of the 19th 6488 sockeye over tumwater. So your pretty close Brentt
Brief update:
The adult mark and recapture fish that are tagged using the 12mm PIT tags are “turning left”, so far (increases every day), at 10.25% = 39,445
The wild juveniles tagged at Rock Island bypass (from all Upper Columbia out migrating fish) in 2008 are “turning left”, so far (potentially increases every day), at 9.23% = 35,645
There are 375 hatchery and 122 wild-tagged 4yr olds and 3 hatchery 5yr olds over Tumwater as of the 26th. Lake Wenatchee tagged fish stray rates are staying constant at 29.5% hatchery and 13.9% wild (tagged fish). ~60% of the Tumwater run has passed. Pit tag estimates, extrapolated from tagged fish over Tumwater, should put us around 21,745 on the 27th. Updated calculations have put the season estimate at 39,840. ~1800 down from my original figure.
Water daily maximum (DADMax) temps are holding at or below 18 C (22 C) presents a potential thermal barrier. Flows are ~30% higher for this same date over last year.
The gap # between RI & RR dams is 44667 with ~1000 fish a day moving through each dam now, so given a 10% loss, with relatively lower temps <19 C (for a few more days?), we should be looking at around 40K for the season!
As of 7/25 there have been 20,715 over Tumwater. This is a little less than 2x the 10 year average
From the Seattle Times:
Possible Lake Wenatchee sockeye fishery looming on the horizon
Posted by Mark Yuasa
While it hasn’t been made official yet word has leaked out that Lake Wenatchee could open for sockeye fishing as soon as this Sunday (Aug. 1).
A spokesman at the state Fish and Wildlife public affairs department in Olympia said an official press release was coming out sometime today (July 29).
If all goes according to plan, a state Fish and Wildlife biologist in eastern Washington reported that the Lake Wenatchee fishery will be open Sunday to Tuesday only with a two sockeye daily limit and a minimum size of 12 inches.
Once this three-day fishery has concluded sport catches and the number of sockeye returning to Tumwater Dam would be reevaluated to see if more openings are possible after those first initial three days.
Through July 25, 20,715 sockeye have passed Tumwater Dam. In Lake Wenatchee, 23,000 are needed for spawning escapement, and 24,000-plus are needed for any type harvest.
Thats a joke if they do this. Why not wait a week to see what the number will be. A 3 day season with a short notice. Not cool.
Just announced:
Lake Wenatchee sockeye fishery opens Aug. 1
Action: Lake Wenatchee opens for sockeye salmon fishing
Effective date: Aug. 1 through Aug. 3, 2010. Opens one hour before official sunrise.
Species affected: Sockeye salmon.
Daily limit: Two sockeye 12 inches in length or greater.
Location: Lake Wenatchee (Chelan Co.)
Reason for action: The 2010 return of sockeye will be sufficient to provide for the Lake Wenatchee spawning escapement goal, and additional sockeye will be present to provide for sport fishing opportunity.
Other information: Selective gear rules and a night closure will be in effect. Bull trout, steelhead, and chinook salmon must be released unharmed without removing the fish from the water. Legal angling hours are one hour before sunrise to one hour after sunset.
Release sockeye with one or more holes (round, approximately ¼? in diameter) punched in the tail (caudal fin) of the fish. These fish are part of a study and have been anesthetized; the FDA requires a 21 day ban on consumption of these fish.
After the fishery closes, WDFW fishery managers will assess the catch and determine if additional fishing opportunities for sockeye remain. Any announcement will be posted under Emergency Fishing Rules on the department’s website at http: //wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/regulations.
Information contact: Chad Jackson, (509) 754-4624.
Have fun guys. No way I can make it on one day notice.
Correction:
The stray rate is not as bad as previously calculated. Someone mentioned that the fish go up stream and back down… of the 131 pit tagged fish released from Lake Wenatchee that went over Rock Reach Dam, and some Wells, 88 have made it back to Tumwater.
There is a lag now at some of the dams for raw PIT data, while the summary report gives total #s. I only looked at the raw data available for Hatchery tagged fish and the stray rate has reduced from an original calculation of ~30% to ~10%. I expect that to be even less as the data is made available, and also considering that fish “just looking” upstream may have been caught or perished that may have returned downstream to the Wenatchee.
The fish lost to fisheries and natural causes have equaled out this correction fairly closely though. The # my excel work sheet calculated for the 25th over Tumwater was 20557 and the Tumwater Dam count was 20715.
Anyway my boat has 10 so far…
Any inside scoop as to where we are on the quota? Just wondering if we’ll be fishing Friday.
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